An analyst who accurately predicted Bitcoin's pre-halving pullback is now sharing what he believes could be the worst-case price scenario for BTC.

In a recent video update, Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous analyst, speaks to his 86,100 YouTube subscribers. He explains that Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle influenced by halving events. These halving events cut miner rewards in half.

Rekt points out that Bitcoin has faced a “three-year resistance” level in each four-year cycle. This pattern dates back to at least 2013. For example, in 2017, Bitcoin needed to break through a resistance level around $700. Then, during the 2021 cycle, it encountered resistance at $13,856 before reaching its peak.

For the current cycle, Rekt identifies the three-year resistance at $46,000. Bitcoin has already passed this level. However, he suggests that Bitcoin might need to revisit this area to confirm it as support before moving higher.

He states, “If we look at the dynamics of how this transition occurs, candle four tends to set up potential retests of this three-year resistance into new support to propel price to new all-time highs and beyond.”

Focusing on candle four and the halving year, Rekt notes that there’s often a chance for a retest of the three-year resistance, shifting from resistance to support. He believes this could mean a drop to $46,000 is necessary for that retest. This would indicate a potential decline of 19% within the month.

While he considers a drop to $46,000 this month possible, he emphasizes that it’s a low-probability event. After all, Bitcoin is in a halving year, not a bear market.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $54,197, showing a slight increase for the day.