Bitcoin might hit $150,000 before it takes a step back, says James Check from Glassnode. He believes that Bitcoin's current price moves are similar to what we saw back in 2016 and 2017.
Check pointed out that the range of $120,000 to $150,000 is what he calls the “topping cloud” for Bitcoin (BTC). He thinks any price above that probably won’t last long.
“We can definitely break through that upper limit,” he said, “but it’s unlikely we’ll stay up there for very long.” Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $103,019. Check mentioned that most investors would feel “quite profitable” if it reaches $120,000, and they’d be even happier if it hits $150,000.
If Bitcoin does reach $150,000, data from Bitbo shows that short-term holders could see an average profit of 66%. Long-term holders might enjoy an average profit of 509%. That’s significant!
Check also noted many similarities between the current cycle and the one from 2016-2017. He said, “There are a lot of comparisons.” Back then, the market was mostly driven by spot trading. There were no derivatives, and stablecoins weren’t a big deal yet.
In early 2017, Bitcoin's price was bouncing between $800 and $1,600. Then, in the second half of the year, it skyrocketed to a peak of $19,783. If today’s market follows that pattern, we might see Bitcoin in a consolidation phase until May. “We’re getting these nice moderate rallies and corrections,” Check explained.
As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $104,120, according to CoinMarketCap. Some traders think Bitcoin won’t reach its peak for 2025 until later in the year. In a recent post, a trader named Bitquant warned that anyone claiming Bitcoin has “topped out” at its current level could be missing out on major gains.
Another trader, Braver, believes the first quarter of 2025 will kick off a crypto bull run. However, he doesn’t think it will be the biggest rally of the year. He predicts the real peak will happen in Q4 of 2025, followed by a bear market in 2026.
Then there’s trader Mags, who pointed out that since Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over $109,000 on January 20, history suggests the next peak could come in 230 to 330 days. That means we might see it between July and October.