Bitcoin derivatives are showing some cautious optimism among investors for potential gains in the coming year. The market is currently in contango, which means futures prices are higher than the spot price.
On Wednesday, December contracts on the CME traded at $91,355. Longer-dated contracts, like those for June 2025, reached $95,670. In comparison, the spot price stood at $90,570, according to MarketWatch.
ARK Invest noted that the futures market for Bitcoin, which often indicates speculative pressure when in contango, seems less overbought than in previous highs this year. In simple terms, when Bitcoin is in contango, investors pay a premium for future purchases. This usually reflects positive market sentiment and expectations of rising prices.
Back in early 2024, as Bitcoin approached $71,000, futures traded at a 30% premium over the spot price on offshore exchanges. ARK described this level as “speculative.” However, by October, that premium had dropped to around 11%, signaling a decrease in speculative excess, even with the recent price rally.
ARK mentioned, “Compared to earlier in 2024, the market appears less overbought now.” This suggests a more stable pricing structure. The gradual increase in Bitcoin futures contracts, with December 2025 prices topping $100,000, indicates that traders are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
The narrowing of the contango suggests a more measured market sentiment. This could help maintain current price levels, provided speculation remains in check. Additionally, the upward trend in Bitcoin futures has coincided with increased participation from institutional investors in CME contracts.
In other words, rising prices in the futures market align with greater interest from large, professional investors. This suggests that institutional players see potential in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Moreover, trading volumes in exchange-traded funds have surged recently. This reflects a growing interest from hedge funds and asset managers looking for long-term exposure without direct ownership of Bitcoin.
Institutional interest has been partly driven by increased regulatory optimism following a Republican return to the White House, along with changing macroeconomic conditions. This interest has helped stabilize Bitcoin’s spot market, pushing it to new heights above $93,000 this year.
Crypto is also set to benefit from the expected launch of additional U.S. exchange-traded funds in 2025. This is likely to expand access for institutional buyers. Analysts believe this will enhance market liquidity and support further growth in futures contracts, as long as adoption continues positively.