Bitcoin's price is holding strong, staying above $100,000. There’s been a lot of chatter lately about a possible "market top," especially in the last 24 hours.
Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of nearly $110,000. This spike happened just before President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech on January 20. However, the price quickly dropped after the president didn’t mention Bitcoin or the crypto industry during his address.
Even with the price above $100,000, discussions about a "Bitcoin top" have started among analysts and commentators. Yet, the overall market sentiment remains mixed. For instance, independent market analyst Jacob Canfield pointed out, “It’s been a long time since I’ve seen the timeline this divided on whether this is the top or the bottom for a new move.”
Investors are encouraged to “be less greedy, not more.” A post on X raised concerns about a potential market peak, coming from GCR, a well-known crypto trader. He famously called the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 back in 2022 and opened a multi-million long position on Solana at $16. After BTC’s recent correction, GCR noted that it had been 750 days since he called the BTC bottom and another 250 days since he suggested investing in high-conviction altcoins. He added, “You should be less greedy, not more greedy.”
Similarly, Bluntz Capital, an anonymous crypto analyst, believes that people are “underestimating” the chances of a market peak as signs of divergence appear across the market.
On the flip side, Reetika, a full-time crypto trader, dismissed the idea of a BTC top. He argued that the crypto asset's market structure is still intact. He stated, “If we start losing market structure we can talk, but right now it seems like you are just hoping to make a bold call on Twitter in the hope of clout.”
Looking at on-chain data, Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle Top indicator hasn’t peaked yet. This technical analysis tool predicts market highs when the 111-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average. Historically, this indicator has accurately predicted tops in the last three market cycles, and as of 2024-2025, the crossover signal has not triggered yet.
Meanwhile, some optimistic commentators believe that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is still on the U.S. government's agenda, even without an official announcement. Eric Cryptoman, a crypto supporter, highlighted the potential benefits of a delayed SBR. He said, “No mention of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during the speech caused a big sell-off, potential generational entries on both chains though as we know it's coming anyway.”
Overall, Bitcoin's high time frame looks bullish. On a higher time frame (HTF), Bitcoin’s market structure has invalidated a recent inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which had a bearish target of $74,000. After BTC broke above $104,000 on January 21, it has held relatively steady despite recent bearish discussions. A key confirmation could come at the end of this week, with BTC aiming for its largest weekly close above $104,460.
A weekly close above $105,000 would surpass its previous weekly high from December 2024. This could potentially set the stage for a new higher high in the coming weeks.