This week, three important U.S. economic events are on the radar for crypto traders and investors. The focus comes from the ongoing impact of U.S. economic data on Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto prices in 2024. Last year was a bit quiet, but things are heating up now.
Right now, Bitcoin is just below the $100,000 mark, sitting above $98,000 after dipping into the $95,000 range over the weekend.
Minutes of Fed’s November FOMC Meeting
On Tuesday, November 26, everyone will be watching the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the minutes from the November 6 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Traders and investors want to see how policymakers assessed the economy leading up to that meeting.
The minutes might also touch on possible economic implications following the recent U.S. election. This comes after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), following a 50 bps cut in September. Investors will be looking for hints about the future pace of rate cuts.
Despite some concerns, data shows that the U.S. economy is holding strong. Yet, there are worries that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies could lead to higher inflation, which might lessen the need for lower rates.
Experts say Trump’s victory could shift U.S. interest rate policy. His proposed measures might risk higher inflation. “Tradition tells us that an increase in tariffs will increase inflation in the U.S.,” reported The Canadian Press, citing Sheila Block, an economist.
The FOMC minutes could impact Bitcoin and crypto by shaping overall market sentiment. Any hints of a dovish or hawkish tone could influence market expectations and change how investors behave.
Initial Jobless Claims
Another key event this week is the release of initial jobless claims on Wednesday, November 27. Concerns about labor market weakness have been around during the summer and fall, marked by rising jobless claims and a higher unemployment rate. This data influenced the Fed’s decision to cut rates in September.
However, recent labor market data has come in better than expected. The unemployment rate has dropped from a peak of 4.3% to 4.1%. The last report showed 213,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending November 16, which was below the estimated 220,000. This is a positive sign.
“U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 213,000 last week, the lowest since April. The labor market is strong,” noted the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
Weekly unemployment claims have been steadily decreasing after hitting a peak in October. While initial claims are down, the rise in continuing claims indicates that employers are trying to keep their workers. However, those who lose their jobs are having a tough time finding new ones.
“Initial jobless claims remain very slow, but continuing claims hit a three-year high. This shows that employers aren’t actively laying off workers, but they aren’t hiring either,” commented Sevens Report.
For now, the labor situation looks stable in relation to the Fed’s dual mandate. If this trend continues, it could signal a reversal of economic hardship and a stronger labor market. This might lead to increased consumer spending and investment in traditional assets like Bitcoin and crypto.
U.S. PCE Inflation
Crypto market participants will also keep an eye on Wednesday’s October U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data. This is the Fed’s preferred gauge. The November PCE index will also be important to see if inflation continued to slow down.
Expectations for the monthly PCE are a rise of 0.2%, with the annual PCE expected at 2.3%. The core PCE is anticipated to show a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual increase of 2.8%, according to MarketWatch.
Rising PCE figures often raise concerns about inflation levels. If PCE inflation exceeds expectations, it could weaken the U.S. dollar as investors anticipate possible monetary policy changes, like interest rate hikes. A weaker dollar usually benefits Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which often have an inverse relationship with the USD.
In such cases, investors might turn to alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Cryptocurrencies are often seen as a store of value, similar to gold, during inflationary times.
Currently, the Federal Reserve remains optimistic that inflation is nearing its 2% target. Policymakers have kept interest rates at historically high levels to combat the inflation surges of the past two years. In this context, traders and investors are closely monitoring price data for positive signs that could prompt the Fed to ease interest rates.