Bitcoin on-chain indicators are raising some red flags about potential coin distribution by investors. This is happening even with high price targets for BTC floating around.

Recent research from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin might be on the brink of a multi-year downtrend this year. Various BTC price indicators are nearing sell-off territory, which is concerning.

The Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) is hinting that the Bitcoin bull market could be nearing its end. It’s entered the “distribution region” for the first time in eight months, which is significant.

While many people are predicting Bitcoin could hit $150,000 or more by 2025, the on-chain data tells a different story. As Gaah, a contributor at CryptoQuant, noted in a market update, the IBCI is approaching the end of its range.

The IBCI consists of seven key on-chain indicators. These include the Puell Multiple, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Together, they provide insights into the Bitcoin price cycle and can signal when a macro top or bottom might occur.

Gaah pointed out that Bitcoin may be nearing a possible cycle top, but we’re not 100% sure yet.

For the IBCI to hit 100%, all indicators need to reach historical distribution levels. Historically, when the IBCI reaches this point, the market often enters correction phases and can shift into bear markets. That said, the current IBCI position suggests there might still be room for growth before we hit a clear market top.

Not every part of the index is sending warning signals for Bitcoin bulls. For instance, the Puell Multiple, which compares the daily value of BTC issued to its 365-day moving average, remains below the classic top level of 6. Also, the IBCI entered its macro top risk zone in early 2024, but this didn’t lead to a sustained downtrend.

Looking at past BTC price cycles, network economist Timothy Peterson believes we’ll continue to see range-bound behavior this year. He predicts that BTC/USD could reach $137,000 before dropping back below six figures for its next local bottom.

Peterson also noted a 90% correlation between this bull run and the one from 2015 to 2017. He even made a long-term price prediction of $1.5 million per coin by 2035.