Bitcoin trader Peter Brandt believes BTC could hit $125,000 by New Year’s Eve. He bases this prediction on Bayesian probability. Brandt points out that Bitcoin is following a pattern similar to its past, which suggests a bullish trend.

Right now, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a strong price discovery phase. It’s the first time since December 2020 that it closed its weekly chart above $80,000. This bullish structure is shifting from a short-term to a long-term outlook. Many analysts think six-figure price targets are closer than we might expect.

Brandt explains that Bitcoin often repeats its bullish price movements during periods of “mark up.” He notes that BTC is currently trading above its previous all-time highs. That’s why he suggests a target of $125,000, using Bayesian probability to back it up. This method helps traders set targets based on how the asset behaved in similar situations before.

Looking ahead, Brandt thinks BTC’s path in Q1 2024 could mirror trends from Q4 2024. He believes it might reach a high of $125,000 just before New Year’s Eve 2024.

Another Bitcoin supporter, known as Titan of Crypto, has a different target. He sees BTC’s bullish pennant target at $158,000. He also pointed out that a golden cross on BTC’s weekly chart is a key signal for continued bullish momentum. For him, $100,000 is the first target for the second bull phase in 2024.

Recently, Bitcoin’s price rose over 5% over the weekend. This created a CME gap between $77,800 and $80,600 on the daily chart on November 11. It’s the first CME gap since August 2024 on the 1-day timeframe. Historically, CME gaps on the daily chart tend to get filled.

If the market shifts, Bitcoin could drop to $77,800 or even lower in the coming days. An anonymous analyst, Scient, suggested that BTC might be nearing a local top. He anticipates a price halt around $84,000 to $85,000, followed by a correction or consolidation for about 7 to 10 days before the upward trend resumes.

It’s essential to consider BTC’s past behavior regarding CME gaps. In 2023, a small CME gap opened after BTC broke a multi-month resistance level, leading to a yearly high in Q4. That gap wasn’t filled until January 2025, when BTC prices surged another 23% from the gap.

If Bitcoin follows this pattern, it may continue to rise. It could even reach a new all-time high above $100,000.