There’s some buzz in the cryptocurrency world. A new prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) prices just came out. The digital asset investment firm 10x Research thinks Bitcoin could drop to $45,000.
Markus Thielen, their Head of Research, lays out several reasons for this forecast. BeInCrypto takes a closer look at these insights by examining key on-chain metrics related to Bitcoin’s current situation.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading below $55,000. It hit a record high of $73,750 back in March. According to 10x Research, this big correction was expected. It’s tied to changes in Bitcoin’s active addresses and the overall market conditions.
“Bitcoin addresses peaked in November 2023 and then sharply declined after the first quarter of 2024,” Thielen explains. “When short-term holders started selling in April, while long-term holders took profits, it suggested a cycle top was reached.”
BeInCrypto checked the data on Bitcoin’s active addresses and found it to be accurate. In November 2023, there were about 1.20 million active addresses. By March, that number was still over 1 million. But now, it has dropped to 612,000. This shows that many participants have stopped engaging with Bitcoin. It highlights a decline in network activity, which may indicate waning interest.
The report also points to $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows this week as a bearish sign. It mentions the weak U.S. economy and significant futures liquidation as other factors that could push Bitcoin down to $45,000.
Data from Glassnode supports the price drop. The Mayer Multiple, often used to spot speculative bubbles in Bitcoin, is currently at 0.8. Typically, a reading above 1 signals a bullish market. When it falls below that, Bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to declines. With the price below the 200-day EMA, it suggests BTC could fall below $50,000.
Looking at the weekly BTC/USD chart, traders started this month at levels similar to November 2021, right before the Bitcoin bear market of 2022. After that, Bitcoin dropped to $36,500 in January 2022 after losing support at $50,000.
Today, there’s a similar support level around $50,000. Bitcoin seems likely to test this level again. If it does, the price could fall to $48,338, possibly approaching $45,000.
If Bitcoin can’t bounce back from this level, it might drop to $40,000. However, if the Mayer Multiple rises above 1, it could signal a new bull market and push Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high.