Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the spotlight after crossing the $61,000 mark. This shift followed the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. It's clear that this price movement has sparked fresh interest in the cryptocurrency, especially given its connection to global liquidity.

Let’s talk about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Changes in the DXY can directly affect Bitcoin's price. Typically, when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin tends to strengthen. Investors often look for alternative assets during these times.

The DXY has been on a downward trend since June, hitting new lows for 2024. It fell below the January 1 low of $101.340 and dropped to $100.923 on Wednesday. Right now, it’s trading around $101.311. A falling DXY is generally good news for risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On the flip side, global liquidity, measured by M2, is on the rise. M2 includes all the money circulating in the global economy, such as checking and savings accounts. Typically, when liquidity increases, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to do well. A higher M2 indicates a looser monetary policy and more money in circulation, which often boosts cryptocurrencies.

According to Cryptonary, “BTC is the most sensitive asset to liquidity. Historically, a 10% increase in global liquidity has led to a 40% increase in Bitcoin’s price.” That’s impressive!

The FOMC minutes suggest that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy at its next meeting. However, this depends on whether the economic data continues to meet expectations. Some policymakers even supported a 25-basis-point rate cut during the July meeting. But for now, the Fed decided to keep rates the same, as reported by BeInCrypto. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 30.5% chance of a 50 bps rate cut in September, indicating a shift in market sentiment toward possible easing.

It’s worth noting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed the need for caution. He’s concerned about cutting rates too early. Still, the FOMC minutes provide valuable insights into how policymakers are thinking about interest rates. All eyes will be on Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. His comments could lead to significant market movements, especially for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Lower interest rates usually benefit risk assets, which aligns with Bitcoin’s recent rise above $61,000. The price has broken above a symmetrical triangle pattern, but we still need confirmation of this breakout. Traders will keep a close watch on Powell’s remarks for further direction.

A stable close above $60,000, along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above 50, would confirm that Bitcoin's uptrend is continuing. For further gains, Bitcoin will need to break through the supply zone between $65,777 and $68,424. If this resistance turns into support, also known as a bullish breaker, it could lead to a new all-time high.

However, there’s a chance Bitcoin could fall back below $60,000, breaking the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. In a worst-case scenario, more selling pressure could push BTC below the lower trendline and into the demand zone. If buying pressure in the support zone between $53,485 and $57,050 can’t hold up against sellers, Bitcoin might drop even lower, potentially targeting liquidity below $52,398. This would indicate a downward move, suggesting a possible trend reversal.