Bitcoin has hit $65,000, thanks to a strong influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On September 25, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $106 million. This marks five days in a row of positive inflows. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, led the charge with an impressive $184 million.
The total inflows for Bitcoin ETFs are now close to $18 billion, sitting at $17.94 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs also performed well, attracting $43.2 million in net inflows. Grayscale’s ETF contributed $26.6 million to that total.
Now, let’s talk about options. Over $5.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire this Friday. This is the second-largest open interest we’ve seen so far. Analysts expect this to create some market volatility as traders adjust their positions. Illia Otychenko, a lead analyst at CEX.IO, mentioned that this could lead to increased market activity.
Most of the volume for the September 27 expiry is focused around the $65,000 strike price. However, many traders initially expected Bitcoin to rise higher, showing interest in the $80,000 and $90,000 levels. Even with these adjustments, a lot of contracts remain “in-the-money,” which could lead to more bullish momentum.
Looking ahead, the next three expiry dates—September 28, October 4, and October 11—show open interest levels that are ten times smaller than September 27. Still, interest is growing and could spike as traders reposition after Friday's close. Otychenko pointed out that there’s a bearish sentiment in these near-term expiries, particularly at the $60,000 and $62,000 strikes. This suggests that traders might expect Bitcoin to either hold steady or experience a slight correction soon.
As for the December 27 expiry, it holds the largest open interest overall. This reflects a positive outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, especially with the $100,000 strike price showing the highest volume and open interest.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin recently tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, a key support zone. It bounced off the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart and is currently consolidating between $62,700 and $65,000. It’s also nearing a three-week ascending support line, which could be crucial for its next move. If this support holds, Bitcoin might break above the $65,000 resistance. But if it falls below, we could see more bearish momentum.
Insights from Greekslive indicate that implied volatility (IV) levels have decreased significantly as we approach this Friday’s quarterly delivery. They noted that this is a relatively small delivery, with Bitcoin’s options position at 33% and Ethereum’s at 38% of total holdings this quarter. Recent large block put option deals suggest that traders are actively moving their positions. The upcoming quarter coincides with the U.S. election, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Despite all this, overall implied volatility remains low, having been below current levels for nearly 30% of the past year. This evolving situation will be a key focus at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on November 19. Industry experts will discuss strategies for managing risks and taking advantage of opportunities in this fast-changing crypto market.