A well-known crypto analyst has updated his forecast on when Bitcoin (BTC) might shift into a bullish trend. In a recent video, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen shared his insights with his 809,000 YouTube subscribers.

He mentioned that Bitcoin could continue to show bearish price movements until the end of 2024. “How long could this lower high/lower low structure last before a change happens? I think it could go on for the rest of the year. That seems right to me,” he said.

Cowen believes a bullish reversal may not happen until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by at least 75 basis points. This prediction is based on trends from the last cycle. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September.

However, he did outline a scenario where Bitcoin could break out of its bearish trend sooner. “It’s possible that this bearish pattern could break in October if the rate cuts come and the neutral rate is higher than the Fed thinks,” he explained. “If they cut rates and end up below the neutral rate, the downtrend could end as early as September. That’s the optimistic view.”

He also provided a more moderate outlook. Cowen recalled that in the last cycle, it took about 75 basis points of rate cuts to change the lower high structure. He emphasized that it might take several meetings for the Fed to reach that 75 basis point reduction. “This could stretch until the end of the year, leading to a potential rebound in January 2025,” he noted.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $59,162, showing a slight increase over the past 24 hours.