The French gambling regulator, Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), is taking a closer look at Polymarket. Recently, a French citizen made headlines by placing big bets on Polymarket, predicting that Donald Trump would win the U.S. election.
ANJ, also known as the National Gambling Authority, is currently examining how Polymarket operates. This crypto-based prediction market saw record betting volumes during the recent presidential election in the U.S.
A spokesperson for ANJ stated, “We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation. We will provide an update shortly.”
According to The Big Whale, a French-language crypto news outlet, ANJ is expected to soon ban access to Polymarket. An unnamed source close to ANJ mentioned, “Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies, it remains a betting activity, which is not legal in France.”
This scrutiny comes after a French national, known only as Theo, profited significantly from Polymarket. He made large and ultimately correct bets on Trump winning the election, despite polls suggesting a close race with Kamala Harris. Reports indicate that Theo could make around $50 million from his trades.
Polymarket allows users to buy and sell shares that represent future outcomes. If a prediction comes true, each share pays out $1 in USDC stablecoin. If it doesn’t, the payout is zero. The prices reflect the market's odds for each potential outcome.
Based in New York, Polymarket isn’t accessible to Americans. It relies on a global audience and has blocked U.S. IP addresses due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which claimed Polymarket was operating without the proper licensing.
Polymarket chose not to comment on the situation.
Supporters of prediction markets argue they offer better forecasting methods than polls or expert opinions. Participants are motivated to do their research since they put their money on the line.
However, betting on elections can be controversial. In the U.S., the CFTC is considering regulations that would prohibit such activities on exchanges under its oversight.