The US presidential election is heating up. With just over 20 days left until voters head to the polls, the outcome could significantly impact the crypto industry. Experts are making predictions about altcoins as the election approaches.
Altcoins Might Rise if Regulations Change
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that some altcoins haven’t gained value due to regulatory hurdles. He points to Uniswap (UNI) as a prime example. Since 2022, Uniswap has proposed a fee switch mechanism. This would allow fees from the protocol to be shared with UNI token holders. However, there are concerns that this feature could expose the project to legal risks, possibly classifying UNI as a security. In April 2024, the SEC issued Well Notes to Uniswap, leading the project to delay its proposal.
Ju suggests that if the fee switch were activated, investors could use the redistributed funds to boost UNI’s price. He explains, “For example, if Uniswap’s fee switch had been activated, its treasury could hold $314 million. Right now, there are $408 million worth of UNI on centralized exchanges. If the treasury were used for buybacks, prices could have skyrocketed by 10x to 100x, depending on order book depth. (This is not financial advice; I don’t hold UNI.)” He also predicts that if Donald Trump wins the election, new regulations might enable the fee switch, pushing UNI’s price higher.
Historical Trends Suggest Altcoin Season
Other analysts are looking at past market patterns to forecast an altcoin season by year-end. CRG’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s current phase resembles the late 2020 cycle. He notes that more than 100 weeks after Bitcoin’s bottom, its price usually climbs to a new peak, followed by an altcoin rally just a week later.
“Compared to previous cycles, we seem to be on track for an explosive third year. If we repeat the last cycle, BTC is about 4 weeks away from price discovery, and BTC dominance is 5 weeks away from a multi-month peak,” CRG predicts.
As of now, Bitcoin’s dominance is at 58%, with no signs of a correction. If Bitcoin’s dominance declines, it could mean that other crypto assets are gaining market share, signaling the start of altcoin season.
Michaël van de Poppe believes the altcoin season will kick off in the next 15 days. He points to the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3) and says, “The Altcoin market capitalization looks ready for a breakout. The next 1 to 2 weeks are likely to provide that breakout.”
According to these timelines, altcoins could see a strong rally after the election on November 5. Polymarket currently gives Trump a 54% chance of winning. Additionally, historical data shows that Bitcoin experienced its best growth during Trump’s presidency across the last four presidential terms.