The recent buzz around meme coins pushed Solana to a new all-time high of $295.83 on January 19. Since then, SOL’s price has dropped by 22%. Still, many investors are hopeful. They believe it could bounce back in February and even surpass that peak.

In this analysis, we’ll look at the chances of Solana rallying above $290 or continuing its current downward trend.

Solana is facing mixed signals right now. There’s talk about Solana futures contracts launching on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which could boost SOL’s price in February. On January 22, a post appeared on CME’s website, hinting that these futures might debut as early as February 10, pending regulatory approval. This news caused a 3% increase in SOL’s price. However, CME later clarified that the post was a mistake and that no official decision had been made.

Even with this clarification, market sentiment remains cautious. CME has a history of legitimizing institutional access to cryptocurrencies. If they confirm Solana futures, it could be a major driver for price growth, potentially pushing SOL closer to its all-time high.

On the flip side, there’s a potential token unlock coming up. According to Tokenomist, Solana plans to release $489.2 million worth of coins through a linear unlock in February. This could increase the available supply and put downward pressure on the market.

Token unlocks often create uncertainty and fear among investors. If the influx of SOL isn’t matched by enough demand, the price could take a hit.

Currently, SOL is trading at $231.53, down 9% over the past week. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows that demand for the altcoin is waning. On Tuesday, SOL’s MACD line (blue) crossed below its signal line (orange), confirming a bearish trend. This setup suggests that selling is outpacing buying, which could lead to further declines.

If this trend continues, SOL’s price might drop below $200, possibly trading around $187.71 in the next few weeks.

However, if demand picks up—maybe due to another meme coin surge or the launch of SOL futures—this bearish outlook could change. In that case, SOL might revisit its all-time high and even climb higher.