Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency linked to Telegram, has recently lost its market cap position to Tron (TRX). This shift comes after a price correction and the ongoing detention of Pavel Durov.

Just before the recent events, TON had a market cap of $17.20 billion. Meanwhile, Tron’s market cap exceeded $14 billion, allowing it to surpass Cardano.

Now, Toncoin's market cap has dropped to $13.47 billion. That’s a staggering decline of $4 billion in just three days. Market cap is calculated by multiplying the circulating supply by the asset's price. So, when TON’s price fell, its market cap followed suit. On the other hand, Tron (TRX) is in a better position.

Over the last 30 days, TON’s price has dropped by 18%. In contrast, TRX has seen a similar increase, largely due to the launch of SunPump. This is a new meme coin token generator introduced by Justin Sun, the founder of Tron.

It’s not all bad news for Toncoin, though. Before the buzz around Tron, the launch of several bot coins on Telegram, which is closely tied to the TON blockchain, had brought significant attention to the cryptocurrency. However, ongoing sell-offs and the uncertainty surrounding Durov suggest that Toncoin's price and market cap could drop even further.

Additionally, Toncoin’s Large Holders Inflow has decreased by 95% over the past week. This metric tracks the activity of wallets holding over 1% of a cryptocurrency's total circulating supply. Typically, when this number spikes, it indicates that large investors are buying after a significant price drop. In this case, the decrease suggests that big investors are being cautious and not purchasing Toncoin at the current price, which might signal more downside risk.

If this trend continues, Toncoin may struggle to recover from its recent losses. It could even lose its spot in the top 10 market cap rankings to Cardano (ADA).

Looking at the daily chart, TON's price is under considerable pressure. For instance, it tried to reach $6 yesterday but has since dropped to $5.32, likely due to a broader market decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TON has also decreased. The RSI measures momentum by evaluating price changes. An increasing RSI indicates bullish momentum, while a decreasing RSI suggests bearish momentum.

In Toncoin's case, the declining RSI indicates bearish momentum, pointing to the potential for more price drops. Key support and resistance levels for Toncoin have been identified using the Fibonacci retracement indicator. Recently, the 38.2% Fib level has acted as a resistance zone for TON, suggesting it may be hard for the cryptocurrency to achieve higher prices.

To have a chance at climbing, TON needs to hold this Fib level. If market prices keep falling, TON's price could drop below $5, possibly reaching $4.85. However, if the blockchain resumes block production, which has been interrupted, a rebound might occur. Increased transactions involving Toncoin could create buying pressure and potentially push the price toward $5.67.