Toncoin (TON) has been on a downward trend since the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on August 24. Right now, it’s trading at $5.45, which is a 20% drop. However, one analyst thinks this Telegram-based asset could actually outperform the broader market in September.
In a recent interview with Beincrypto, Ryan Lee, the Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, shared his insights. He pointed out that the price drop following Durov’s arrest isn’t a “severe crash.” Instead, it mirrors Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent struggles to break past the $60,000 mark. Lee also noted that despite the recent downturn, TON has performed better than Ethereum (ETH). As of now, ETH is trading at $2,523, down 24% over the past month.
“TON has faced some decline due to negative news,” Lee explained. “But even with major news like the arrest of Telegram’s founder, TON’s price didn’t take a huge hit. It showed resilience and has recovered well. Over the last 30 days, its decline has closely followed BTC’s, significantly outperforming ETH.”
Lee pointed out that despite the negative press surrounding Pavel Durov’s arrest, the sentiment around TON remains bullish. He believes this is due to the unity among TON ecosystem builders, projects, and supporters. This strong community has helped keep FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) off social media.
If this positive trend continues, Lee thinks TON is set to slightly outperform the general cryptocurrency market in September. “As long as there are no more negative developments in the TON ecosystem, its performance in September is likely to follow or even slightly exceed the broader market. It largely depends on the overall market sentiment,” he added.
When discussing price targets, Lee mentioned that TON could retest levels around $6.50 or $7. However, if the market environment stays the same, he expects TON to consolidate and fluctuate between $5 and $6.
Looking at TON’s price performance on a one-day chart, there’s potential for more short-term declines. Right now, the altcoin is trading well below the Leading Span A and Leading Span B of its Ichimoku Cloud indicator. This indicator helps identify trends and levels of support and resistance. Being below the cloud suggests that TON is in a downtrend, with sellers currently in control.
Additionally, TON’s declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the selling pressure. The RSI is currently below the neutral line at 38.22, indicating that selling activity is outweighing buying pressure.
If selling continues, TON’s price might drop to $4.74. This could invalidate Lee’s optimistic projection of $6.50 to $7. On the flip side, if the market shifts toward accumulation and traders start buying more TON, the price could rise to $5.57 and potentially reach $6, aligning with Lee’s predictions.